2011 Lower Shore Temperature Tracking

04.13.2011 Update: The smaller Lower Shore tribs should be seeing their first substantial push of fish if the sun stays out today. Hard to say regarding the bigger ones, I just haven't gotten a reliable temp from those recently. The next creel census numbers will say a lot about what's happening. I suspect the numbers won't be as good as they could be due to a couple factors: The tribs are still blowing out: Big, high and dirty affects catch rates. That and it looks like the weather might slow things down again this weekend... (Click for Larger Image)

Wow we're close! Using the DNR steelhead return study data along with plotting the temperatures of several Lower Shore tribs, you can see we're getting very close to the main returns beginning. No question we have fish movement going on already, but it's just first scouts as it were. I wish I would have had all of today's data, but I thought it better to get the chart put together and worry about what happened today with temps tomorrow (big jump across the board). Lets just say things are really heating up. Man what a cruddy joke. I'm sorry, pretty pathetic I know.... Remember that according to DNR data, "Upstream movement of adult steelhead in the spring initiates when maximum daily water temperatures exceed 4.4*C (39.92*F) and mean daily water temperatures exceed 3.3*C (37.94*F)." Schreiner et.al. Minnesota DNR. As you can see, the available temp data is showing were pretty close. Tomorrow should be interesting... Only item of note is that I'm a little suspicious of the Sucker data. Seems a little low, but then again it's been getting a ton of melt. Crazy readings this afternoon though, so we'll check it tomorrow. Anyway, here's the chart (Click for Larger Image): I'll be posting other numbers as soon as I can run them through the matrix.

Regards- NMF


John M said…
I was there on 4-9 and saw similar results. I fished as far up as the Stewart and only found 33 degree temps there. Sucker had 36 degree until a large ice dam broke free and the ice bath cooled it 4 degrees in minutes. Sat. evening the Lester had 38 degree temps and was the warmest I found. The DNR dude I talked to interviewed 27 stream fisherman and none had caught Steel. I witnessed 2 caught lakeside, but rivers were still 3-6 degrees too cold. Next weekend should be peak, but packed with people. Get out early and claim your holes.

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