Latest 2011 Analysis
My apologies! I've been in several intensive job-related schools over the last four weeks and haven't had much time to play with the data let alone fish...
So here's the current picture more or less. I put the Lower Shore creel up against the trap numbers and although there are no surprizes, there are some items to take note of:
Three points of clarification: The vertical lines are all annotated for what they represent and are accurate to the date they occured, not simply the week they occured in. The black vertical line is Knife River ice-out, the blue vertical line is the average date 4 Lower Shore streams reached the upstream migration temp threshold. The red line represents the date Lower Shore streams maintained 40 degrees overnight which according to DNR data, typically represents the peak of the return/migration.
Once again you can see very clearly the relationships between temperatures and early-run activity. Once temps hit the upstream movement initiation threshold, things really kicked off. Peak returns based on trap numbers also occurred as soon as temps maintained that magic 40 degrees overnight which is a well studied MN phenomenon. There is a little fudge-factor there due to the date the traps opened, but it's still pretty clear.
One significant item to note: The Upper Shore returns lag the Lower Shore by anywhere from 14-21 days. This is significant because when you do the math based on the above graphic well, you get the picture. There are still plenty of fish to be found as DB says.
Regards-
NMF
So here's the current picture more or less. I put the Lower Shore creel up against the trap numbers and although there are no surprizes, there are some items to take note of:
Three points of clarification: The vertical lines are all annotated for what they represent and are accurate to the date they occured, not simply the week they occured in. The black vertical line is Knife River ice-out, the blue vertical line is the average date 4 Lower Shore streams reached the upstream migration temp threshold. The red line represents the date Lower Shore streams maintained 40 degrees overnight which according to DNR data, typically represents the peak of the return/migration.
Once again you can see very clearly the relationships between temperatures and early-run activity. Once temps hit the upstream movement initiation threshold, things really kicked off. Peak returns based on trap numbers also occurred as soon as temps maintained that magic 40 degrees overnight which is a well studied MN phenomenon. There is a little fudge-factor there due to the date the traps opened, but it's still pretty clear.
One significant item to note: The Upper Shore returns lag the Lower Shore by anywhere from 14-21 days. This is significant because when you do the math based on the above graphic well, you get the picture. There are still plenty of fish to be found as DB says.
Regards-
NMF
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